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Making Trades in the Past

August 7, 2012

From Jerry Adler at Wired:

The 2012 New York Battle of the Quants, a two-day conference of algorithmic asset traders, took place in New York City at the end of March, just a few days after a group of researchers admitted they had made a mistake in an experiment that purported to overturn modern physics. The scientists had claimed to observe subatomic particles called neutrinos traveling faster than the speed of light. But they were wrong; about six months later, they retracted their findings. And while “special relativity upheld” is the world’s most predictable headline, the news that neutrinos actually obey the laws of physics as currently understood marked the end of a brief and tantalizing dream for quants—the physicists, engineers, and mathematicians-turned-financiers who generate as much as 55 percent of all US stock trading. In the pursuit of market-beating returns, sending a signal at faster than light speed could provide the ultimate edge: a way to make trades in the past, the financial equivalent of betting on a horse race after it has been run…

By some estimates, 90 percent of quotes on the major exchanges are canceled before execution. Many of them were never meant to be executed; they are there to test the market, to confuse or subvert competing algorithms, or to slow trading in a stock by clogging the system—a practice known as quote stuffing. It may even be a different stock, but one whose trades are handled on the same server. On the Internet, this is called a denial-of-service attack, and it’s a crime. Among quants, it’s considered at most bad manners.

Previously.

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2 Comments leave one →
  1. RBM permalink
    August 7, 2012 6:26 pm

    Fec, being the geek you are and interest you have in financial systems The Automatic Earth(TAE) has a piece you might want to check out:

    Here’s The Science That Can Solve The Crisis

    Last week, Nature Magazine wrote about a report by Stefano Battiston, Michelangelo Puliga, Rahul Kaushik, Paolo Tasca & Guido Caldarelli, researchers at ETH Zurich, originally published as DebtRank, too central to fail? at the FOC site.

    This is how the people at Phys.Org summarize the report:

    Team studies the innermost circle of the financial crisis

    “Too central to fail” instead of “too big to fail”: whether banks pose a risk to the financial system when they get into distress has more to do with their level of networking than with their size. Economic researchers at ETH Zurich have developed a method to deduce the “systemic importance” of banks from their complex connections within financial networks.

    “Between 2008 and 2010 a total of 22 banks formed the innermost circle of the financial crisis. They were so intensely connected with each other through credit relationships, mutual equity investments and financial dependencies that the distress of any single one of them could endanger the entire financial system. [..]

    “The paper by the ETH Zurich researchers injects fresh impetus into the debate regarding the systemic importance of banks that are “too big to fail”. A bank becomes systemically important, or “too big to fail”, when its services are irreplaceable and its insolvency would cost the national economy more than its rescue by the state. However, a bank’s size is only one indicator of its importance for the financial system. Even small banks can pose systemic risks if they are closely networked with other financial institutions.

    “The identification of such networking risks and interdependent credit risks presents major challenges for science, business and the authorities concerned. For this reason, the European Commission has launched the scientific project “Forecasting Financial Crisis (FOC)”. FOC is financed by the FET OPEN Scheme (“Future and Emerging Technologies Open Scheme”). Its research topic is to understand and possibly forecast systemic risk and global financial instabilities. [..]

    “The Federal Reserve data originate from the “emergency loan program” from 2007 to 2010, through which the Fed provided “cheap” money to financial institutions in the USA that were acutely at risk of defaults. At the height of the crisis, the total amount of loans granted climbed to an astonishing USD 1.2 trillion.

    “The Federal Reserve published the figures after the US Supreme Court granted the Bloomberg business and financial information and news company the right to inspect the data, since the American financial system had, after all, been restructured using public funds. The data sets from the Federal Reserve and Bloomberg document the residual outstanding debts and the market capitalisation of a total of 407 financial institutions that borrowed emergency loans from the Fed. The size of the loans provides an indication of a bank’s individual debt over equity ratio and of any potential distress or defaults.

    “The assessment of the Federal Reserve data showed that, although the various banks got into difficulties at different times, around 30 banks reached the peak of their emergency situation simultaneously at the height of the crisis. Considered over the entire duration of the emergency loan program, it also became apparent that the number of top borrowers at any given moment hovered around a figure of 20. The ETH Zurich researchers then turned their focus towards those 22 institutions that had received more than USD 5 billion in emergency loans on average over the entire crisis period.

    Ok, introductions done. I toyed around with a great little widget on the FOC page based on the report, and generated the graphs below.*

    Embedded links not included. The graphs, Illargi, TAE author created, speak volumes.

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